MDBase Rates: Probability Before the Trade
Before every trade one question matters: how often has this setup worked historically? The answer is the base rate.
What Are Base Rates?
Historical hit rates of a defined setup. They do not say what will happen, they say how often it has happened.
The Flush Example
After a flush (around minus 1.9 percent in three days) the market statistically recovers more often. Such conditions feed into the signals.
Why It Disciplines
Knowing the base rate keeps you following the rule even after two losing trades. Without it, every trade becomes emotional.
Setup: 3 day flush. The base rate of recent cases decides whether a signal is issued.
Where do base rates come from?
From our own journal and the evaluation of historical V2 signals.
Do base rates guarantee profits?
No. They give probabilities, not promises. Risk always remains.
Are base rates published?
Yes, evaluations appear regularly in the channel and dashboard.